Incrementality measurement is the process of determining how much of your marketing performance is truly attributable to your marketing efforts, rather than what would have happened regardless. It isolates the incremental lift or incremental revenue generated by a specific campaign, channel, or tactic using controlled experiments (test vs. control).

Unlike attribution, which distributes credit based on clicks or views, incrementality measurement focuses on causal impact. It answers one critical question: If we hadn’t run this campaign, how much business would we still have achieved?

By comparing exposed audiences (test) to unexposed ones (control), incrementality measurement reveals the true effectiveness of marketing efforts, enabling smarter budget allocation and better strategic decisions.

Attribution assigns “credit” for conversions based on predefined models, including last-click, first-click, or multi-touch attribution. While this helps describe where interactions occur, it doesn’t prove why they happen.

Incrementality measurement, on the other hand, employs causal inference to reveal the actual, measurable impact of marketing. Attribution answers who saw the ad and converted, while incrementality answers did the ad actually cause that conversion?

In short:

• Attribution = descriptive (what happened)
• Incrementality = causal (why it happened)

fusepoint’s research shows that attribution models often overstate impact by up to 40%, particularly in lower-funnel or retargeting tactics. Incrementality testing corrects this, revealing where marketing truly drives growth versus where spend is wasted.

How does an incrementality test work?

An incrementality test (also known as a matched market test) compares a test group (exposed to marketing activity) with a control group (not exposed) to measure the incremental effect of the campaign.

fusepoint runs two core types of incrementality tests:

1. Growth Tests – Used for new channels or spend increases. Spend is raised in a test market to measure whether additional investment generates incremental revenue.
2. Holdout Tests – Used for existing channels or tactics. Spend is withheld in certain markets or audiences to determine how much sales decline when marketing is paused.

These test vs. control comparisons reveal incremental conversions, sales, or revenue lift, often expressed as incremental ROAS or percentage of incremental contribution to total business performance. 

Incrementality experiments and marketing mix modeling (also known as media mix modeling) are complementary. Incrementality provides short-term causal validation, while MMM gives long-term strategic insights.

fusepoint integrates incrementality data as priors in MMM models to improve precision and reduce noise. This helps brands:

• Calibrate MMM coefficients with real-world test data.
• Validate media mix decisions before scaling budgets.
• Forecast incremental ROI and channel saturation points.
• Identify where diminishing returns begin across spend levels.

By combining incrementality testing with MMM, marketers gain a full measurement system: causal precision in the short term, and forecasting power in the long term.

Yes. Incrementality is one of the most powerful tools for media planning and budget allocation.

When brands know which channels or tactics are truly incremental, they can confidently reallocate spend to maximize returns. For example:

• If paid social shows strong incremental lift but retargeting does not, budgets can shift accordingly.
• Incrementality results reveal which upper-funnel campaigns create new demand versus which merely capture existing intent.
• Incrementality data helps refine channel sequencing and audience overlap to avoid cannibalization.

fusepoint uses incrementality measurement to inform both tactical media plans and broader portfolio strategies, helping marketing teams prioritize high-value investments that sustain profitable growth.

How do you measure incrementality for online and offline channels?

Incrementality testing can measure both digital and offline channels through different methodologies:

• Digital: Audience-level holdouts, platform API integrations, and conversion tracking via clean rooms or privacy-safe IDs.
• Offline: Geo-based matched market tests comparing similar regions, often using retail sales, CRM, or point-of-sale data.

For an omnichannel marketing strategy, fusepoint combines both approaches into hybrid models that account for cross-channel interactions and halo effects, so the incremental impact of digital campaigns on offline sales (and vice versa) is properly captured.

Incrementality testing should be an ongoing process, not a one-off analysis.

fusepoint recommends running controlled experiments quarterly or when any of the following apply:

• A new channel or platform launch (e.g., CTV, TikTok, retail media).
• A major change in campaign strategy or creative direction.
• A new pricing or promotional strategy.
• Seasonal peaks or shifts in macroeconomic conditions.

Consistent testing builds a feedback loop that strengthens forecasting, improves ROI, and helps teams continuously optimize marketing performance.

Most matched market tests (MMTs) take 4–6 weeks from setup to results.

This allows enough time to stabilize campaigns, collect sufficient conversion data, and validate lift with confidence. Duration may vary depending on channel scale, audience size, and business seasonality.

fusepoint’s frameworks are designed for repeatability, so once your systems are calibrated, future experiments can run faster and integrate easily with other measurement tools like MMM or cross-channel marketing attribution dashboards.

Data quality is critical. Inaccurate or incomplete data can lead to false conclusions about incremental impact.

fusepoint emphasizes:

• Reliable test and control selection – Markets or audiences must be statistically comparable.
• Stable conversion tracking – Avoiding pixel loss or attribution bias.
• Consistent data capture – Including conversions, spend, and audience exposures.
• Sufficient sample size – Ensuring results reach statistical significance.

High-quality, centralized data ensures incrementality analysis truly reflects performance rather than noise, building organizational trust in insights.

Incrementality testing helps answer questions that attribution alone can’t:

• How much of our recent growth was truly driven by marketing?
• Are we overspending on retargeting or branded search?
• Which channels or campaigns create incremental conversions vs. those that capture existing demand?
• What’s the incremental ROI of adding a new platform or increasing budget?
• Which creative or audience strategy generates the strongest incremental lift?

These insights shape not just marketing, but executive-level decisions on investment, product strategy, and financial forecasting.

When properly designed, incrementality testing provides the most statistically reliable view of marketing impact. Unlike attribution or modeled results, it’s grounded in controlled marketing experimentation, the same principles used in scientific research.

However, accuracy depends on careful design, including representative test/control markets, consistent spending levels, and sufficient time for results to stabilize. fusepoint’s data intelligence consulting uses proprietary matching algorithms and historical benchmarks to ensure tests meet these standards and deliver actionable insights with high confidence.

fusepoint combines expertise in incrementality testing, marketing mix modeling, and data economics to help brands see the full picture of their marketing effectiveness. Our process is fast, repeatable, and grounded in statistical rigor.

We don’t just measure performance, we show you how to act on it. With fusepoint’s marketing measurement framework, brands gain the clarity to make smarter spending decisions, prove marketing’s real impact, and scale growth with confidence.