As new tariffs roll in and as the markets are shifting, brands are bracing for another wave of budget scrutiny. When uncertainty hits, marketing spend is often the first on the chopping block. But the knee-jerk reaction to slash branding, prospecting, and measurement can do more long-term damage than short-term good.

Here’s why, and how to navigate smarter.

The Typical Response in a Downturn

In nearly every economic slowdown, the pattern is predictable:

First goes brand spend:

• “We can’t measure it, so let’s cut it.”
• “Let’s focus on performance channels only.”
• “Our brand ROAS stinks.”

Then top-of-funnel (TOF) channels vanish:

• Prospecting budgets disappear
• Display gets turned off
• Video/CTV gets paused

Finally, measurement itself gets deprioritized:

• Testing budgets get chopped
• Data projects get delayed
• Incrementality studies get postponed

This reactive approach is understandable, but flawed.

The 95-5 Rule: What Most Brands Miss

There’s a principle in marketing that only 5% of your audience is actively in-market at any given time. That leaves 95% who aren’t buying today, but will be in the future.

Brand marketing isn’t about driving immediate conversions, it’s about shaping perception, building recall, and being the first name that comes to mind when that 95% is ready to act.

When you go dark on brand, you go dark to 95% of your future customers. Your competitors who maintain visibility? They’re quietly capturing tomorrow’s demand.

Why Cutting Brand Spend Hurts Growth

At fusepoint, we’ve seen it across categories and client types: brands that pull back too far lose not just awareness but also market share and efficiency.

Eliminating brand or TOF spend trains your media engine to only chase low-hanging fruit. That’s fine, until the tree is bare.

And when you also pause measurement, you lose visibility into what’s truly working. That means waste multiplies, blind spots grow, and you’re less prepared to adapt when conditions change again.

The Smarter Path: Optimize, Don’t Eliminate

There’s a better way, one that protects your future without ignoring present realities.

1. Get Clear on Incrementality

If you’ve avoided true incrementality measurement, now’s the time. Understanding what’s actually driving lift—vs. just riding organic or branded traffic—is the foundation for smarter reallocation.

At fusepoint, we help brands:

• Run synthetic control tests
• Isolate incremental CAC
• Prioritize high-impact spend

This lets you cut waste, not growth.

2. Find the Smartest Spend with MMM—Where Channels Work in Sync

Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) reveals more than what’s working—it shows how your channels lift each other. By measuring the halo effect, MMM captures the true impact of your media mix, not just individual tactics.

Then comes the real power: feeding those incrementality findings back into your model. This creates a living system that adapts to shifting market conditions, consumer behavior, and business goals. Especially in today’s economic climate, it’s the smartest way to reallocate spend—not just for short-term wins, but for long-term efficiency and growth.

3. Distinguish Acquisition vs. Cannibalization

Which channels are net new customer drivers vs. those just poaching organic conversions?

Keep the channels that bring fresh demand, even at smaller budgets. Those are your growth engines.

4. Pressure-Test Before Pulling the Plug

Instead of turning off channels:

• Reduce frequency caps
• Negotiate down partner rates (it’s a buyer’s market)
• Test smaller spend thresholds

We’ve seen brands cut 30% of media spend and retain 90%+ of performance with this approach. It’s not about spending less, it’s about spending smarter.

fusepoint’s Role

As a data and strategy consultancy, fusepoint exists to provide clarity when it’s needed most.

We’re not another performance agency. We’re your objective growth partner, the ones helping brands:

• Validate their media mix
• Uncover waste
• Design custom incrementality frameworks
• Turn research and measurement into real-world action

Especially now, fusepoint helps mid-market brands adapt faster, grow leaner, and outpace the competition.

Final Thought: Don’t Go Dark

In a downturn, the brands that win aren’t the ones who cut the most. They’re the ones who cut with precision, invest with intention, and measure relentlessly.

The question isn’t whether to cut, it’s where, how, and why.

Want to know what’s working and what’s wasting your spend? Schedule a free measurement assessment with fusepoint today.